"We need to talk" about CAPE ratios

https://www.riskparityradio.com/podcast/episode/75658718/episode-209-popular-swr-delusions-and-the-madness-of-gurus-and-portfolio-reviews-as-of-september-30-2022

https://www.riskparityradio.com/podcast/episode/7a8db999/episode-223-a-celebrity-deathmatch-about-cape-ratios-and-related-topics

Big ERN "Karsten Jeske" is amazing, his writing is prolific, I have learned a lot from him. But...I think he is leading the pack to be too conservative. Listen to these 2 podcasts above and tell me what you think.

Frank was able to use Big ERN's toolbox to get 4.9% SWR from 1926-2022 with:

27.5% large cap growth

27.5% small cap value

30% intermediate treasuries

15% gold

Today we have way more options to construct a more resilient portfolio but that is all that was available with data going back that far. There is older data it sounded like you could not break down the equities into SCV and LCG.

submitted by /u/drdrew450
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